Marginal REVOLUTION

Podcast with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

2026-02-23 · 06:20 UTC ·Tyler Cowen ·1 min read

Brief

Tyler Cowen's Feb 23, 2026 conversation with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer argues for strategic ambiguity on Taiwan—threaten some risk ex-ante but decide ex-post based on TSMC control, U.S. chip capacity, and potential Japan/South Korea nuclearization.

Why it matters

Tyler Cowen (podcast with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer, published 2026-02-23) advocates a 'mixed strategy' on Taiwan: maintain strategic ambiguity ex-ante but decide case-by-case ex-post, weighing control of TSMC, U.S. domestic chip capacity, and risks of Japan/South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons.

Key details

  • Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer hosted the episode; Cowen noted President Biden has said 'we are going to defend Taiwan' four times, and the conversation also touched on UAPs, curling, and Sullivan's unpublished China book reportedly pending at Tsinghua.
Source evidence

title: Podcast with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer
author: Tyler Cowen
contenttype: article
publication: Marginal REVOLUTION
published: 2026-02-23T06:20:06+00:00
sourceurl: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/02/podcast-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer.html?utmsource=rss&utmmedium=rss&utm_campaign=podcast-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer

word_count: 314

Mostly about geopolitics , plenty of fresh content.  And here is the transcript .  Excerpt: Jon Finer: Should the United States be willing to take military action to defend Taiwan? It’s a thorny question for politicians to answer, but we’d be interested in your view. Tyler Cowen: Well, this is what economists would call a mixed strategy. Ex-ante, we should have strategic ambiguity, and not just say, we’re not going to defend Taiwan. And when Joe Biden said, “Well, we are going to defend Taiwan,” I was quite happy. Jon Finer: Four times. Four times. Tyler Cowen: Four times, yes. I know there’s different versions of how it was talked back and the like, but it should be unclear. That said, when push comes to shove, if China has made its move, you have to look at what are the terms of the deal? What are they going to do with TSMC to our best knowledge? What’s the domestic quality chip production in the United States? How do we feel about Japan and maybe South Korea getting nuclear weapons? Can South Korea remain an autonomous nation? Those are a lot of balls to juggle and they’re all hard to judge at this moment. But I think ex-ante, we should definitely create some risk that we will go to war over Taiwan, but then make the best decision ex-post. But China knows that too, right? They’re not fools. They’ve studied game theory. Jake Sullivan: Tyler, I’m going to put you down as that being Tyler Cowen’s version of strategic ambiguity. Tyler Cowen: It may not be that different from your version. Jake Sullivan: Exactly. Recommended, and I also talk about my secret, unpublished China book, still pending at Tsinghua, almost certainly forever.  And we cover UAPs and curling as well. The post Podcast with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .