Marginal REVOLUTION

“Tough on crime” is good for young men

2026-02-25 · 06:13 UTC ·Tyler Cowen ·1 min read

Brief

A new paper by Panka Bencsik and Tyler Giles uses vote-share regression-discontinuity on hundreds of prosecutor elections (2010–2019) and finds electing a Republican prosecutor cuts all-cause mortality for men 20–29 by 6.6%, driven largely by reduced firearm deaths.

Why it matters

Using vote-share regression discontinuity on hundreds of closely contested partisan prosecutor elections (2010–2019), Panka Bencsik and Tyler Giles estimate that a narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality among men aged 20–29 by 6.6%.

Key details

  • The decline is driven mainly by reductions in firearm deaths: a large drop in firearm homicide among Black men and smaller drops in firearm suicide/accidents among White men; increased conviction rates (and resulting legal gun-disqualification) are the main channel, while prison incapacitation explains about one-third of the effect for Black men and none for White men.
Source evidence

title: “Tough on crime” is good for young men
author: Tyler Cowen
contenttype: article
publication: Marginal REVOLUTION
published: 2026-02-25T06:13:46+00:00
sourceurl: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/02/tough-on-crime-is-good-for-young-men.html?utmsource=rss&utmmedium=rss&utm_campaign=tough-on-crime-is-good-for-young-men

word_count: 163

Using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from 2010 to 2019 and a vote share regression discontinuity design, we find that narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men ages 20 to 29 by 6.6%. This decline is driven predominantly by reductions in firearm-related deaths, including a large reduction in firearm homicide among Black men and a smaller reduction in firearm suicides and accidents primarily among White men. Mechanism analyses indicate that increased prison-based incapactation explains about one third of the effect among Black men and none of the effect among White men. Instead, the primary channel appears to be substantial increases in criminal conviction rates across racial groups and crime types, which then reduce firearm access through legal restrictions on gun ownership for the convicted. That is from a new paper by Panka Bencsik and Tyler Giles. Via M. The post “Tough on crime” is good for young men appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .