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Gain.pro data shared in the post says several major alternative-asset managers…

2026-03-16 · 17:10 UTC ·LeylaKuni ·2 min read

Brief

Leyla Kuni uses a Gain.pro chart to highlight how the biggest private equity firms have become major private credit lenders too, complicating the narrative that creditors will simply dominate sponsors in a downturn. The discussion reframes distress as an intra-industry conflict among giant alternative managers, with debate over whether private credit’s funding model makes it safer than pre-2008 banking or just vulnerable in different ways.

Why it matters

Gain.pro data shared in the post says several major alternative-asset managers now run private credit platforms as large as or larger than their private equity businesses: Apollo has $690B in private credit versus $150B in private equity, Ares $377B versus $38B, Brookfield $332B versus $150B, and KKR $292B versus $215B.

Key details

  • The post’s core claim is that the usual line from private credit managers — 'if debt is impaired, private equity is really cooked' — is weakened because many of the same firms sit on both sides of the capital structure, with Blackstone at $407B private credit / $389B private equity and Carlyle at $223B / $242B.
  • Replies argue private credit is structurally less fragile than banks in 2007 because it is not funded by overnight deposits, repo, or commercial paper; one commenter contrasts 30-40x bank leverage and 20%+ subprime default rates with private credit defaults currently in the low single digits, while others warn that redemption windows and growing CRE exposure could still create asset-liability mismatch risks.
Cleaned source text

title: @LeylaKuni: Private credit managers: “If you think debt is impaired, private equity is reall...

author: LeylaKuni

content_type: twitter_post

published: 2026-03-16T17:10:41+00:00

source_url: https://x.com/LeylaKuni/status/2033591799487643909/photo/1

word_count: 341

Tweet by @LeylaKuni

Private credit managers: “If you think debt is impaired, private equity is really cooked” Also private credit managers:

Posted: 2026-03-16T17:10:41.000Z

Engagement: 1376 likes, 0 retweets, 35 replies

Discussion (15 replies)

@DowdEdward (42 likes)

@LOGOinvestor (11 likes)

now add the historical default rates on those private credit assets :), the big dogs its literally miniscule. The only difference now: financial advisors running cause they heard some news report private credit was in flames, thats all

@jonchimpo23 (10 likes)

Now add in their CRE and growing private real estate financing arms.

@WilliamXnote (10 likes)

Yes especially as the real alpha in PE is legging creditors; but its clearly a zero sum alpha/loss if the industry is on both sides of the table

@debt_serious (9 likes)

I think there is also a broader point – people who think PE can screw PC in a downside scenario should keep this chart in mind. PE would be going against equals who have taken their gloves off, not some pushover banks.

@siv_s7 (5 likes)

Banks in 2007 were 30-40x levered, funded by deposits, commercial paper, and repo liabilities due overnight. Private credit vehicles have no such run risk. Subprime saw 20%+ defaults, private credit today is running in the low single digits. Yes, some normalization is happening

@PiyushP200412 (3 likes)

PE firms becoming private credit giants is basically a response to banks retreating from leveraged lending after regulations. When credit tightens, the lender controls the table and PE sponsors know it.

@AndrysCharlie (3 likes)

@JamesonSharpKc (2 likes)

I believe some of the Fund Managers are literally overworked to the point the PC Fund Committee’s are likely making poor decisions. Just my opinion. It may be wrong. But…? Hmmm……

@RichardWedekin1 (2 likes)

Avoid Apollo at all cost

@txgermanbre (2 likes)

@blue58blue58 (2 likes)

@taranvirkaonke (2 likes)

Left hand give Right hand receive Clean clean

@CloveOwl (1 likes)

Classic asset / liability mismatch. Banks learned this lesson with deposits vs long term loans. Private credit is running the same playbook illiquid multi year lending funded by capital with redemption windows. The gates slow the run. They don't prevent it.

@wizard_mar5723 (1 likes)

I seriously wondered why so many software companies - low capex, high OF - borrowed billions of debts from Private Credit. The problem solved here. Turned out the 1980s Junk bond again. And 1991s Insurers crash back? Hope it's not. But it's just hope.