Energy Evolution

CERAWeek: War, energy security, and the redrawing of global trade flows

2026-03-20 · 12:07 UTC ·S&P Global Commodity Insights ·1 min read

Brief

Strait of Hormuz disruption is framed here as a system-level energy shock rather than a temporary regional crisis. In conversation with host Eklavya Gupte, Dave Ernsberger describes how blocked Gulf exports are forcing new trade patterns, hitting Asian buyers hardest, and complicating the economics of both refining and downstream fuel supply. He also connects the resulting energy inflation to AI-driven data center expansion, extending the consequences beyond commodity markets.

Why it matters

Dave Ernsberger of S&P Global Energy says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has turned a long-modeled tail risk into a real-world shock affecting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, making it potentially the biggest energy supply disruption on record.

Key details

  • Ernsberger argues the effects are highly uneven: India is facing LPG shortages, Asian refiners are being squeezed on profitability, and fuel markets are tightening sharply across regions dependent on Gulf exports.
  • The episode links the Hormuz disruption to a broader redraw of trade flows east of Suez, with the usual balance of affordability, energy security, and sustainability breaking down; Ernsberger also says the shock is feeding inflationary pressure into the AI and data center buildout, including in US states adding new power-hungry facilities.
Source evidence

title: CERAWeek: War, energy security, and the redrawing of global trade flows
author: S&P Global Commodity Insights
contenttype: podcast
publication: Energy Evolution
published: 2026-03-20T12:07:01+00:00
sourceurl: https://batterymetals.libsyn.com/ceraweek-war-energy-security-and-the-redrawing-of-global-trade-flows

word_count: 171

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was long considered one of the energy market's great hypotheticals -- until it became a reality. In this special CERAWeek series episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte sits down with Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, to examine what may be the most significant energy supply disruption ever and how it's forcing a fundamental redrawing of the global energy map. With around 20% of the world's oil and LNG usually passing through this key chokepoint, the impact has been asymmetrical and severe -- India faces LPG shortages, Asian refiners are struggling with profitability, and fuel supplies are tightening sharply. The conversation also explores how this crisis is accelerating a structural shift in energy markets, particularly East of Suez, where the energy trifecta of affordability, security and sustainability has been upended. Ernsberger also looks at how the conflict is intersecting with the AI and data center boom -- creating inflationary pressures that reach from the Middle East to different states in the US.