Twitter/X

On 2026-03-11, @plur_daddy argued that crude oil prices were being pushed…

2026-03-11 · 08:56 UTC ·@plur_daddy ·1 min read

Brief

@plur_daddy frames the 2026 market as a policy-distorted, late-cycle trading environment led by crude oil price suppression. The core claim is that government intervention is overpowering fundamentals, making directional trades unreliable unless policy and market forces line up. As a result, the author is staying mostly in cash and waiting for higher-conviction setups while taking profits quickly elsewhere.

Why it matters

On 2026-03-11, @plur_daddy argued that crude oil prices were being pushed artificially lower and did not reflect the remaining geopolitical or market risk, claiming the administration was successfully bending markets toward its preferred outcome.

Key details

  • The post characterizes the current regime as a less-free market environment where government objectives conflict with fundamentals, making trading difficult because policy could abruptly reverse the situation and leave traders 'chopped.'
  • For 2026, @plur_daddy's base case is a difficult late-cycle market that rewards patience, only taking high risk/reward setups, using quick take-profits on other trades, and staying mostly in cash; the author says they are already up significantly for the year and can afford to be selective.
Source evidence

title: @plurdaddy: At a high level, everything is keying off crude prices, which are being manipulated lower as prices ...
author: @plurdaddy
contenttype: tweet
publication: Twitter/X
published: 2026-03-11T08:56:53+00:00
sourceurl: https://x.com/plur_daddy/status/2031655591135834265

word_count: 158

At a high level, everything is keying off crude prices, which are being manipulated lower as prices do not reflect the risk that still remains. Have to acknowledge the admin's proficiency in bending markets towards their will.

This is reflective of the paradigm we are in: one where markets are less free. It's a difficult setup to trade, when the desired government result and fundamentals are opposed, especially knowing the government could decisively end the whole situation on a whim. I prefer situations where government goals and market fundamentals are both aligned in the same direction. I am doing nothing here, mostly in cash. Risk of getting chopped is high.

High level read on 2026 is a difficult late cycle market, and stylistically this demands patience for high R/R spots, and grinding out quick TPs for anything else. As I already am up a lot for the year, makes it easier to sit back and be more selective.