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Weekly|AI Infra, SpaceX Part 2, ASML & TSMC Earnings, TMTB AMA Next Monday, PLTR, AMZN Acquiring GSAT
Brief
FundaAI’s weekly briefing synthesizes a catalyst‑heavy week in which Agentic AI demand materially repriced the hardware and space stacks. Key reported numbers: TSMC raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to >30% YoY with 2026 CapEx at the high end of $52–$56bn; ASML lifted 2026 revenue to €36–40bn and warned of a 2027 EUV shortage; Anthropic’s ARR climbed from >$9bn at end‑2025 to >$30bn in April 2026. Using bottom‑up SOTP and TPU rack BOM analysis, FundaAI models network port‑ratio shifts (OCS scale‑up ~1.5:1 → 2:1–10:1; scale‑out ~0.2:1 → 1:1) and finds TPU TCO >2× better than GB200, concluding that DCN/interconnect — not raw FLOPS — is the immediate bottleneck. Implications: expanded TAM for optics, transceivers, memory and semicap equipment, and major near‑term catalysts including earnings season and Google Cloud Next (Apr 22–24, 2026).
Why it matters
TSMC (1Q26) raised full‑year 2026 USD revenue growth guidance to >30% YoY and is planning 2026 CapEx at the high end of $52–$56 billion, citing Agentic AI demand (coverage Apr 17, 2026).
Key details
- ASML (1Q26) revised 2026 revenue guidance up to €36–40 billion (from €34–39bn) and flagged a potential 2027 EUV supply shortage, underscoring capacity limits in the semicap upcycle (coverage Apr 17, 2026).
- Anthropic’s ARR reportedly jumped from >$9 billion at end‑2025 to >$30 billion in April 2026, signaling much faster monetization of agentic AI than street models anticipated and shifting bottlenecks to supply side elements (nodes, memory, CPU, interconnect).
- FundaAI’s AI Infra 2026 deep dive models TPU networking shifts — OCS scale‑up port ratios moving from ~1.5:1 to 2:1–10:1 and scale‑out from ~0.2:1 to 1:1 — finds TPU rack BOM TCO >2× better than GB200, and concludes networking/DCN (3D→4D→6D torus roadmap) is now the binding constraint; the report became FundaAI’s most‑read in three days.
- SpaceX Deep Dive Part 2 bottom‑up SOTP values Starlink at 10–15× P/S, Launch Services 10–20×, Starshield 3–8×, yielding $992B base / $1.49T bull valuations; a rumored $2T IPO implies ~$500–1,000B option premium tied to Starship production cadence.