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Archival quotes show deal competition accelerated decades ago
Brief
Edsuh assembles decades of VC-era press quotes (1981–2005) to argue that many phenomena treated as 'unprecedented'—fierce competition for deals, VCs as glamorous career choices, megafunds, solo GPs/angel syndicates, hype-driven projections, roll-ups, and rapid geographic expansion of VC—have clear historical precedents. He quotes Eugene Kleiner (1981) on decision timelines shrinking to 'weeks or even days,' Bart Schachter (2004) on three- to four-week closes, NYT/WSJ reportage of entrepreneurs courted by dozens of firms in 1999, and period coverage of SoftBank-sized bets ($100M+) alongside warnings about megafunds in 1988. The thread's thesis: 'history may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes,' and a new generation of VCs may wrongly view recent shocks (ZIRP, COVID, the LLM race) as wholly novel.
Why it matters
Archival quotes show deal competition accelerated decades ago: Eugene Kleiner (1981) warned decisions moved from 'two or three months' to 'weeks or even days'; Bart Schachter (Blueprint, 2004) said deals were closing in 'three to four weeks' including legal reviews; NYT (1999) reported entrepreneur Jonathan Lee was approached by 'no fewer than 20' venture firms.
Key details
- Venture capital became mainstream and culturally 'sexy' by the late 1990s/2000: LA Times (2000) described Stanford's 'Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital' course so full students were 'practically hanging from the rafters,' and WSJ (1999) quoted VCs being solicited 'at restaurants, at parties, by taxi drivers.'
- Megafunds and large single-company bets emerged in prior cycles: WSJ (1988) warned of 'megafunds' shifting focus away from seed, and NYT (1999) described SoftBank's willingness to invest '$100 million or more' in one Internet company while most U.S. VCs 'seldom invest more than $20 million.'
- Patterns of hype, roll-ups, solo GPs, and geographic copycatting recurred: WSJ/1998 noted aggressive revenue projections driven by competition; WSJ (1997) documented VC-backed 'roll-ups' in low-tech industries; WSJ (1997) also reported entrepreneurs pooling ~$6 million (Sippl Macdonald) to form small funds; late-1990s coverage shows Europe rapidly building VC firms copying Silicon Valley models.