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Google in early 2004 held search leadership, strong talent gravity, and an IPO…
Brief
Sandy Kory argues the worst-case for SaaS and B2B AI is a Google-style consolidation—like Google in early 2004 (led search, IPO at $23B)—where a single AI front door replaces multiple enterprise tools. He cites legacy platforms (Salesforce, NetSuite, Workday), startups (Harvey, Cursor, Glean), doubts OpenAI/Anthropic will likely fill that role, and flags weakening customer retention as the key canary.
Why it matters
Google in early 2004 held search leadership, strong talent gravity, and an IPO later that year valuing it at $23 billion — Kory uses this as a worst‑case analogue for a single AI front door displacing many SaaS/B2B tools.
Key details
- Legacy enterprise platforms (Salesforce, NetSuite, Workday) remain widely used while startups (Harvey, Cursor, Glean) gain adoption; Kory doubts Anthropic or OpenAI are likely to become that central interface because B2B switching costs are high and competition is more alert.
- The key 'canary in the coalmine' is any erosion in established vendors' high customer retention; Kory does not currently see that happening, notes AI is in the vertical part of its S‑curve, and recalls 2005–2015 non‑zero‑sum Internet growth that still allowed winners like Uber, Airbnb, and Robinhood.