title: The Venezuela Opportunity
author: Packy McCormick
content_type: article
publication: Not Boring by Packy McCormick
published: 2026-01-22T13:54:22
source_url: https://www.notboring.co/p/the-venezuela-opportunity
word_count: 4961
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The Venezuela Opportunity
Brief
The Venezuela Opportunity argues that Operation Absolute Resolve (Jan 3, 2026) unlocked a rare chance to rebuild Venezuela as part of a strategic "Nova Gran Colombia" bloc. Based on conversations with operators on the ground and company data, the authors quantify energy and infrastructure advantages (Venezuela ~16–17 GW hydro installed; Colombia ~11 GW; theoretical hydro potential 62.4/56 GW) and technology enablers (subsea cables TAM-1, CSN-1, MANTA; Miami–Bogotá ~45 ms). The essay highlights reverse migration (8M diaspora), Cashea's fintech traction (>4% GDP GMV Sep 2025), and a U.S.-backed Marshall Plan-style play to finance datacenters, ports, and 21st-century infrastructure.
Why it matters
Operation Absolute Resolve (Jan 3, 2026): the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro and — per the author — now controls Venezuela's oil; Venezuela is credited with ~304 billion barrels of reserves and DOE Secretary Chris Wright has indicated U.S. control could be "indefinitely."
Key details
- Macro and energy potential: a free Venezuela could form a "Gran Colombia" bloc with 105M+ people and $700B+ GDP; Venezuela has an estimated 8M-person diaspora; hydropower currently ~64% of Venezuela's generation with ~16–17 GW installed (Colombia ~58% hydro, ~11 GW installed) and technical potentials of ~62.4 GW and ~56 GW respectively.
- Tech and fintech opportunity: IEA estimates data centers used ~415 TWh in 2024 and could reach ~945 TWh by 2030; region has new subsea cables (TAM-1, CSN-1, MANTA) and ~45 ms Miami–Bogotá latency; fintech Cashea processed >4% of Venezuela's GDP in GMV by Sep 2025 (target >6%); GENIUS Act + dollarization/stablecoin use make Venezuela a testbed for regulated digital-dollar infrastructure.