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Transmission Takes a Decade, Load Doesn't — with Raina Hornaday
Brief
Texas is in the middle of simultaneous, rapid demand growth and an unprecedented pipeline of generation proposals, and the mismatch between generation ambitions and transmission capability shapes how projects are being built. ERCOT’s all‑time demand peak is 85.5 GW, yet the market entered 2026 with roughly 432 GW of generation in the interconnection queue and about 225 GW of new large‑load requests filed in 2025. Raina Hornaday — founder of Caprock Renewables and Fortress Microgrid and a developer responsible for more than 1 GW of Texas projects over two decades — describes transmission as a long lead, capital‑intensive constraint that “load doesn’t want to wait for.” Her utility‑scale portfolio includes 150–300 MW solar projects; one 300 MW site required a new substation and two years of construction, illustrating the multi‑year timelines for bulk transmission work.
Because transmission expansion lags, Hornaday and other developers are shifting toward distributed generation, co‑located solar+storage, microgrids and behind‑the‑meter supply for fast‑moving customers (notably AI/data centers and Permian loads). Site selection is increasingly nodal‑data driven — choosing nodes with attractive prices and substation access — and smaller projects (sub‑10 MW batteries or behind‑the‑meter builds) avoid the full interconnection study process, shortening lead times. Battery energy storage has become a critical stopgap: ERCOT’s Real‑Time Co‑Optimization Plus Batteries (launched December 2025) and a large buildout of storage (capacity roughly doubled in the prior year) have damped price volatility since the 2021 Uri event and provide fast dispatchable capacity while transmission is planned and built. Nevertheless, not all storage projects proceed; cancellations through early 2026 reflect permitting and siting opposition, local fire‑safety concerns, financing and supply chain issues.
Hornaday also highlights the local economic and workforce benefits of renewables (agrivoltaics, “solar sheep,” school‑district interactions), the loss of Chapter 313 incentives that changed project economics, and ongoing political risk — e.g., Senate Bill 819’s failed 2025 effort and likely future iterations. Her prescription: more education, standardized siting and permitting practices, and policy alignment so Texas can pair rapid load growth with flexibility resources and transmission investments required for long‑term reliability.
Why it matters
ERCOT’s all-time demand peak is 85.5 GW, while at the end of 2025 the interconnection queue contained 432 GW of generation requests and ERCOT received ~225 GW of new large-load requests in 2025.
Key details
- Raina Hornaday has developed more than 1 GW of renewables across Texas over 20+ years and founded Caprock Renewables and Fortress Microgrid; Caprock built utility-scale projects of about 150 MW, 200 MW and a 300 MW site that required a new substation and two years of construction.
- Hornaday calls the current trend the “energization of land”: developers and landowners are maximizing sites for solar, batteries, data centers and storage, and her site-selection methodology relies on nodal price data and substation availability.
- Transmission is the binding constraint: long planning and construction lead times (often measured in years to a decade) are driving a surge in distributed generation, microgrids and behind-the-meter solutions because load growth (AI/data centers, Permian demand) cannot wait.
- Battery storage has emerged as the practical stopgap—ERCOT’s real-time co-optimization plus batteries went live in December 2025 and storage additions (battery capacity roughly doubled in ERCOT last year) have reduced price volatility post-Uri and improved dispatchability.
- Policy and siting risks persist: Senate Bill 819 (89th Legislature) would have imposed strict siting requirements and was defeated in 2025 but Hornaday expects similar bills to return; battery project cancellations (including some through Feb 2026) are driven by permitting, siting, fire-safety/local opposition, financing and supply-chain issues.