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Peter Girnus, Director of Strategic Planning at the California High‑Speed Rail…
Brief
Peter Girnus, who has been the California High‑Speed Rail Authority's Director of Strategic Planning for 17 years and authored multiple business plans and methodology updates, lays out a first‑hand account of scope creep, cost escalation, and stalled construction: Proposition 1A (2008) envisioned SF–LA service for $33.5 billion, but the 2026 draft business plan (which Girnus says he authored, page 47) lists a $231 billion cost and a Phase 1 trimmed to Merced–Bakersfield (171 miles). Girnus reports 119 miles of elevated structures exist with no track, a ridership forecast cut from 95 million by 2030 to 36 million by 2060, and fares projected to rise from $55 to $105. He highlights fiscal friction—the $9.95 billion bond costs $647 million/year for 30 years—and governance failures noted by the State Auditor, SNCF’s 2011 exit, lingering eminent‑domain parcels acquired in 2016, a delayed April 29 board vote, and the personal irony that his pension vests in 2034 while he continues to produce plans that always recommend continuing the project.
Why it matters
Peter Girnus, Director of Strategic Planning at the California High‑Speed Rail Authority for 17 years, says he wrote four business plans, oversaw six revisions, and authored eleven methodology updates while the train has not carried passengers; he still keeps a hard hat from the 2015 Fresno groundbreaking in its cellophane as a bookend.
Key details
- The 2008 Proposition 1A promise (San Francisco–Los Angeles, 2h40m, $55 ticket, 95 million annual riders by 2030, $33.5 billion total) has been superseded: Girnus says the 2026 draft business plan (he wrote page 47) estimates a $231 billion cost, the completion target moved from 2020 to 2032, and Phase 1 is now Merced–Bakersfield (171 miles) with 119 miles of columns/viaducts built but no track.
- Ridership and fare revisions: Girnus reports ridership projection trimmed from 95 million by 2030 to 36 million by 2060 (he updated that figure in 2024) and the projected ticket price raised from $55 to $105.
- Financial and governance details Girnus cites: the $9.95 billion bond costs the state $647 million/year for 30 years (~$20 billion total repayment) and is being serviced; SNCF left as consultant in 2011 citing “political dysfunction” (Morocco built 200 miles by 2018); Parcel 417 (12 acres, acquired by eminent domain in 2016) remains unused; the State Auditor found “Flawed Decision Making and Poor Contract Management”; a board vote set for April 29 was delayed; Girnus notes his pension vests in 2034 and he always writes plans recommending continuation.