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The US currently operates ~97 GW of nuclear capacity (~20% of electricity) and…
Brief
US nuclear fuel supply chain faces deep import dependence and capacity shortfalls: the country runs ~97 GW (~20% of electricity) but may need 100–300 GW by 2050. Conversion (ConverDyn at ~7 kt/y), limited domestic uranium (<1%), and slow enrichment/fabrication buildout (DOE $2.7B; projects into 2034) create a gap McKinsey prices at $105–170B plus $20–45B if reprocessing proceeds.
Why it matters
The US currently operates ~97 GW of nuclear capacity (~20% of electricity) and may need an additional 100–300 GW by 2050 driven in part by data center and AI load growth.
Key details
- The US went from 64% of global enrichment capacity in 1985 to importing 27% of enrichment services from Russia in 2023; under 1% of uranium is domestically sourced.
- Conversion and enrichment are chokepoints: ConverDyn Metropolis Works idled 2017–2023 and restarted in 2024 at ~7 kt/year (15 kt nameplate, meeting ~50% of demand); DOE awarded $2.7B in Jan 2026 and firms (Centrus 2029, Orano 2031, General Matter 2034) still fall short of demand—McKinsey estimates $105B–$170B to enable a 300 GW buildout, with reprocessing an added $20B–$45B and ~90,000 t of spent fuel in dry casks.