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DeepSeek Part Two: Why AI Skeptics Are Wrong. 10 Stocks That Will Win.
Brief
Tae Kim argues (Key Context, published 2026-03-30) that short‑term macro fears — from the Iran war to “peak AI capex” talk — obscure a structural pivot: inference is now the dominant workload. Citing Bill Dally and on‑the‑ground GTC conversations with Meta/Google/Nvidia engineers, Kim reports ~90% of data‑center power is going to inference and hyperscalers’ planned “hundreds of billions” in capex still can’t meet demand. Agentic AI (notably coding assistants) multiplies token demand roughly 15× per Arm CEO René Haas and has driven CPU orchestration needs from ~30M to ~120M cores per GW; Intel is locking multi‑year supply deals. Nvidia is central — networking sales +263% YoY, Groq acquisition for ultra‑low‑latency inference, and Vera Rubin GPUs slated for 2026 — while model improvements (Anthropic “Mythos,” larger context windows, multimodal data) and Amazon’s GPU rearchitected ads point to sustained, large‑scale demand (U.S. knowledge work ≈ $6.2T).
Why it matters
Tae Kim (Key Context) wrote on 2026-03-30 that current market angst (Iran war, “peak AI capex”) echoes last year’s tariff/DeepSeek panic and is likely short‑lived as AI inference demand surges.
Key details
- Nvidia chief scientist Bill Dally said ~90% of data‑center power is now going to inference; GTC conversations with Meta/Google/Nvidia staff indicated a severe inference compute shortage despite hyperscalers’ “hundreds of billions” in 2026 capex.
- Arm CEO René Haas estimates agentic AI increases token demand ~15× and says CPU orchestration needs per GW have quadrupled from ~30 million cores to ~120 million cores; Intel’s CFO is negotiating 3–5 year supply agreements with hyperscalers.
- Nvidia is positioned to benefit: networking revenue grew 263% YoY, the company acquired Groq to target ultra‑low‑latency inference, Vera Rubin GPUs are due later in 2026, and ecosystem advances (Anthropic’s rumored “Mythos,” OpenAI model work, Jeff Dean on larger context windows) will drive more compute. Logan Bartlett estimates U.S. knowledge work as a $6.2 trillion addressable market for AI agents.