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AI Chip Supply Chain Bottlenecks and Capacity | Epoch AI
Brief
Epoch AI’s May 8, 2026 AI Chip Components explorer maps upstream constraints by estimating how Nvidia, AMD, Google, and Amazon consume three critical inputs—TSMC advanced logic wafers, HBM from SK Hynix/Samsung/Micron, and TSMC CoWoS packaging—on a per‑chip, per‑designer, quarterly basis (chip scope only). The dataset shows distinct phases: CoWoS packaging was the choke point in late 2024–early 2025 (top four used nearly all CoWoS capacity, now ~80–85% after expansion), then HBM tightened sharply in 2025 as U.S. export controls cut Chinese demand and the four designers ramped memory‑heavy chips. Component spending jumped from $22B to $52B (2024→2025), with HBM responsible for roughly $20B of that rise and HBM’s cost share growing to about two‑thirds of component spend by end‑2025. Leading‑edge logic remained a softer constraint (top four ≈11% of advanced logic wafers in 2024–25), but next‑gen 3nm AI chips will raise advanced‑node pressure.
Why it matters
Epoch AI launched the AI Chip Components explorer (published 2026-05-08) to estimate chip-component consumption by the four leading U.S. AI chip designers—Nvidia, AMD, Google, and Amazon—focusing on chip-level inputs: advanced logic wafers (TSMC), high-bandwidth memory (SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron), and advanced packaging (TSMC CoWoS).
Key details
- Advanced packaging (TSMC CoWoS) was the primary bottleneck in late 2024–early 2025; the top four designers consumed nearly all CoWoS wafer output during that period and still account for roughly 80–85% of CoWoS capacity after TSMC capacity expansions in 2025.
- HBM became the dominant constraint in 2025: the top four’s share of global HBM spiked in Q1 2025 and they consumed nearly all HBM supply by H2 2025 after U.S. export controls cut off large Chinese purchases (Samsung shipped an estimated 7 million HBM stacks, ≈$1.4B, to Chinese customers in Dec 2024). HBM shortages are expected through 2027, with suppliers effectively sold out and major customers reportedly offering to finance SK Hynix expansions (including ASML EUV machines).
- Total component spending across the top four rose from $22 billion (2024) to $52 billion (2025); of the ≈$30 billion year‑over‑year increase, about $20 billion came from HBM. HBM’s share of quarterly component cost grew from ~50% in early 2024 to ~66% by end‑2025. Example: Nvidia’s B300 carries 288 GB of HBM3E vs the H200’s 141 GB.