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Opinion: Triumph and folly

Brief

Narendra Modi and the BJP are depicted as riding a political high after the West Bengal victory: the party now runs over two‑thirds of states and territories covering about 80% of India’s people, while Mr Modi has led as prime minister for 12 years. The newsletter credits economic dynamism and reform for the BJP’s popularity but warns of democratic erosion—electoral‑register revisions that have disenfranchised millions, weakening of the Election Commission, criminal investigations of opponents and a more pliant press—which could prompt a turn toward divisive politics if near‑term pressures such as rising energy costs hit voters. Simon Long, who covered the 2002 Gujarat riots when Mr Modi was chief minister, contrasts regional economic performance (an average Bengali earns roughly half of a Gujarati) and invokes wider concerns about rulers’ folly (citing Barbara Tuchman and a Telegram column). A letter from Prof. François Melese links long one‑party dominance to emigration (noting California after nearly 30 years) and argues democracy needs competitive pressures.

Why it matters

Narendra Modi’s BJP, after winning West Bengal, now governs over two-thirds of India’s states and territories, representing roughly 80% of the country’s population; Mr Modi has been prime minister for 12 years.

Key details

  • The piece flags democratic backsliding in India: a heavy‑handed revision of the electoral register that has disenfranchised millions, diminished independence of the Election Commission, criminal probes of opponents and an increasingly pliant press.
  • Simon Long recalls covering the 2002 Gujarat riots when Mr Modi was chief minister and notes Modi’s early electoral strategy as protector of Hindus; he contrasts West Bengal’s 100m population and stagnant economy—an average Bengali income about half that of Gujarat—with national growth.
  • A letter from Professor François Melese (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey) argues sustained one‑party dominance spurs emigration — he points to California’s outflows after nearly three decades of one‑party rule — and stresses that functioning democracy needs competitive pressures.
Cleaned source text

Also: Our letter of the week

May 10th 2026 For subscribers

Opinion

The best of our leaders, columns and guest essays

Triumph and folly

Simon Long

Editor-at-large

When I moved to India in 2002 for a stint as _The Economist_ ’s South Asia bureau chief, one of the first big stories I had to cover was an election in the state of Gujarat. It has coloured my view of Narendra Modi ever since. Earlier that year, there had been terrible rioting in the state, and a vicious pogrom directed at its Muslim minority. Mr Modi was Gujarat’s chief minister at the time, and he and his government were accused of having done too little to stem the bloodshed, and even of having encouraged it. Mr Modi campaigned for re-election as the protector of the state’s Hindu majority against the threat of Pakistan-sponsored Muslim terrorism. It worked: his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increased its share of seats in the state assembly.

Mr Modi—India’s prime minister for the past 12 years—is again on a roll, as our leader notes this week. After its victory in the state election in West Bengal, the BJP and its allies now run over two-thirds of states and territories, home to 80% of India’s people. The BJP’s popularity stems in large part from a vibrant economy, strengthened by Mr Modi’s willingness to push through welcome reforms, and from a fragmented opposition desperately short of ideas and credible leaders.

There are darker sides to its success, too: a heavy-handed revision of the electoral register, disenfranchising millions; an erosion of the Election Commission’s independence; criminal investigations into the government’s opponents; and an increasingly pliant press. Our leader worries about how the BJP may react if rising energy costs in the next few months start turning voters against it. Might it double down on divisiveness, as it did at the beginning of Mr Modi’s rise to power?

That would be folly. But, as The Telegram points out, that doesn’t rule it out. The column is a sparkling if ultimately depressing catalogue of political own goals scored by current and historic political leaders—from Caligula to Montezuma to Britain’s George III to an array of contemporary blunderers, such as Vladimir Putin, Binyamin Netanyahu and, of course, Donald Trump. It notes that Mr Trump has already earned an entry in the annals of self-harm and that, after the war with Iran, his self-inflicted mistakes may need their own chapter.

Citing the book “The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam”, by Barbara Tuchman, an American historian, The Telegram points out that the important question about rulers’ acts of foolishness is whether they can be blamed on an individual, and so can be fixed by an election or two. Or are they, in effect, systemic and likely to persist even after a change of leader?

My letter of the week is a response to an earlier Telegram column about the links between politics and mass migration, and the argument that one explanation for the resilience in recent years of nasty regimes, from Hungary and Russia to Syria and Turkey, is that pro-democracy liberals who do not like them find ways to emigrate. Professor Francois Melese , of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, suggests that the phenomenon can also be seen in full democracies where one party is persistently in power—and as evidence points to the unprecedented number of people leaving his own home state of California after nearly three decades of one-party rule. He refers to surveys, which list many reasons for leaving beyond just an unresponsive state. But he is surely right that a functioning democracy requires competitive pressures—a truth both Mr Modi and Mr Trump sometimes seem to undervalue.

Or am I being unfair to two elected leaders exercising their popular mandates? Do let us know what you think. Roger McShane will be back at this desk next week and he looks forward to hearing from you, especially with complaints about his stand-in. You can reach us at opinionnewsletter@economist.com.

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Narendra Modi’s party is on a roll in India

The BJP has beaten a bad ruler in West Bengal. But India must not become a de facto one-party state

No one should mourn the exit of Mamata Banerjee, ejected by voters in West Bengal, India’s fourth-most-populous state. For 15 years she presided over failure. Though the economy booms nationally, for the 100m people in her state it stagnates. An average Bengali now has an income just half of someone’s in Gujarat, the home of Narendra Modi, the prime minister. Just as bad were Ms Banerjee’s thuggish tendencies. She silenced critics and jailed opponents. Her party ran extortion rackets. Allegedly, its goons sometimes got away with rape. Businesses were forced to pay bungs for land and licences. No wonder many left.

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