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Technological Unemployment Worries

2026-05-10 · 12:05 UTC ·The Idea Farm ·5 min read

Brief

The Idea Farm newsletter (May 10, 2026) curates several research reports with quantified implications for markets, technology risk, and AI adoption. Deutsche Bank credits a cyclical recovery plus structural themes (AI exposure, governance reform) for the KOSPI rerating and notes strong earnings and discounted valuations versus global peers. J.P. Morgan’s Investment Bank warns that ~20% of IT and ~50% of OT assets are “unpatchable,” calling attention to hardware-level vulnerabilities in systems from aircraft autopilots to power-grid controls. Vista Equity finds agentic AI adoption early—only ~1% of enterprise data in AI stacks—yet models as much as $11 trillion of cumulative software/infrastructure value by 2030. FT Partners’ 100-largest private-FinTech ranking shows $174B in combined revenue, topping $158B from the top-100 recent public firms. Separately, an intramonth momentum study (1980–2025) finds nearly all momentum returns concentrated in six trading days before month-end, implicating market structure over slow information flow.

Why it matters

J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Investment Bank note, 27 pages) flags cybersecurity risk: ~20% of information-technology (IT) assets and ~50% of operational-technology (OT) assets are classified as “unpatchable”—vulnerabilities that cannot be fixed by software updates alone and will require hardware or system upgrades (examples: aircraft autopilots, factory robots, power-grid controls, railway switches).

Key details

  • Vista Equity Partners (16 pages) finds agentic AI adoption is nascent—only ~1% of enterprise data is currently incorporated into AI solutions—and projects software and infrastructure could generate up to $11 trillion of cumulative value by 2030 if adoption accelerates.
  • FT Partners (71 pages) ranks the top-100 private FinTechs and reports the combined revenue of those private firms is $174 billion, exceeding the $158 billion revenue of the top-100 public companies founded in the last 20 years.
  • The Intramonth Momentum Cycle study (53 pages) shows U.S. equity momentum returns from 1980–2025 accrued almost entirely during six trading days just before month-end, suggesting market plumbing/structural timing effects rather than slow information diffusion.
  • Deutsche Bank’s Korea note (14 pages) argues the KOSPI’s recent gains are a mix of cyclical recovery plus structural drivers—AI exposure and corporate governance reforms—while earnings and fundamentals remain strong and valuations trade at a discount to global peers.
Cleaned source text

\+ 100 Baggers, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Henry McVey, Freakonomics & More ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

May 10, 2026 | Read online

“Uncertainty isn’t something to fear—it’s where possibility lives.”

— _David Booth

Research

Deutsche Bank - Korea: From “discount” to re-rating(_14 pages_)

Deutsche Bank says the KOSPI’s recent performance has been driven by a rare combination of cyclical recovery and structural growth themes such as AI and governance reform initiatives. Meanwhile, fundamentals remain strong with strong earnings and valuations are rather low and offer a discount to global peers.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - In the Garden of Good and Evil: Frontier AI Escalates Security Costs(_27 pages_)

J.P. Morgan’s Investment Bank published a note on the cybersecurity vulnerability of operational technology such as aircraft autopilot systems, factory robots, power grid controls, and railway track shifting systems. Around 20% of information technology assets and 50% of operational technology assets were classified in the note as “unpatchable,” meaning that their vulnerabilities cannot be addressed solely through software updates and will require technology upgrades.

FT Partners - The Coming FinTech Liquidity Supercycle(_71 pages_)

This report lists the top 100 largest private FinTech companies by valuation based on public benchmarks and proprietary estimations. It highlights the revenue of the top 100 private FinTech companies ($174 billion) now exceeds that of the top 100 public companies founded in the last twenty years ($158 billion).

Vista Equity Partners - Agentic AI and the Future of Enterprise Software(_16 pages_)

Vista Equity Partners examines how agentic AI could shift enterprise software from systems that help employees into systems that perform work. Adoption remains early, with only 1% of enterprise data incorporated into AI solutions, while software and infrastructure could see $11 trillion of cumulative value by 2030.

Source: Vista Equity Partners

The Intramonth Momentum Cycle(_53 pages_)

The authors argue that U.S. equity momentum is less about slow information diffusion and more about market plumbing. From 1980 to 2025, almost all momentum returns accrued during just six trading days before month end.

Bonus Content

In his latest macro update, KKR’s Henry McVey advises leaning into quality, liquidity, and return streams less dependent on valuation expansion. _Link

Baillie Gifford’s Tom Slater says AI is coming for your mind, not your job. _Link

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Chief Economist, addresses the the scare story of "technological unemployment" and revisits his old arguments about the deflationary nature of technology. _Link

Morningstar’s quarterly update provides an in-depth market analysis on the global economy, stocks, and fixed-income. _Link

Are you better off replicating VT’s exposure using two separate Vanguard ETFs – the Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) and the Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) – held in the same weights? Victor Haghani thinks so. _Link

Podcasts

4/8/2026 - 64 minutes

Ten Myths About the U.S. Tax System (Update)

Freakonomics covers tax myths, fiscal dishonesty, and the realities behind federal debt and budget policy.

Apple|Spotify|YouTube

4/23/2026 - 71 minutes

When Massive Private Companies Go Public

Ben Felix and Cameron Passmore discuss mega IPO dynamics, index fund mechanics, and how structural constraints can lead investors to systematically buy high and sell low.

5/1/2026 - 93 minutes

How to Find 100 Bagger Stocks

Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss identifying 100 bagger stocks, characteristics of high quality compounders, and the role of long term compounding in equity returns.

Meb’s Corner

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