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@0xd1namit is building a strategy for 'tweet markets' and estimates the…

2026-05-10 · 10:24 UTC ·@0xd1namit ·1 min read

Brief

@0xd1namit says he’s developing a tweet-market trading strategy that he believes estimates the probability of a given number of posts more accurately than Polymarket. He built a quick v1 (two entry strategies) that backtested to breakeven, then v2 that backtested to ~2x in two weeks; all stats are simulated backtests. He now has access to Claude (via a friend), is testing a model on trade simulations, and will not disclose the model logic.

Why it matters

@0xd1namit is building a strategy for 'tweet markets' and estimates the probability of a certain number of posts more accurately than Polymarket; v1 (two market entry strategies) backtested around breakeven, while v2 (improved entry logic) backtested to ~2x returns over two weeks.

Key details

  • All performance numbers are from backtests with simulated entries and the author explicitly notes real-world results will definitely be different.
  • @0xd1namit gained access to Anthropic Claude via a friend's 'Claude Code', has built a model now being tested on trade simulations, and refuses to share model logic to protect his edge (post published 2026-05-10 10:24:52+00:00).
Source evidence

I want to tell a bit more about the strategy I’m working on

It’s related to tweet markets. The core idea is simple: I estimate the probability of a certain number of posts more accurately than Polymarket does, and profit from that

I quickly built a simple v1 with two market entry strategies and over time they performed around breakeven

A bit later I made v2 and improved the entry logic, and it made ~2x in 2 weeks

I’m still working on it and I already know which parts need to be improved. Hopefully this turns into something real in the future

Important: all the stats are based on backtests with simulated entries. In reality the results will definitely be different

d1namit (@0xd1namit)

I finally got access to Claude. But technically I’m just using my friend’s Claude Code

Not ideal, but at least something

Now I can finally build everything I’ve come up with lately

I already made one model and right now testing it on trade simulations

Of course I’m not going to share the model logic because it will kill my edge. But I’ll share the results and progress here

— https://nitter.net/0xd1namit/status/2046555521117757927#m