The war is not winnable for Russia, and it's turning into a demographic catastrophe.
Russia suffered 352,000 dead at the end of 2025. By now we are easily at 400,000 dead. That is 1% of the male Russian fighting age population of roughly 40 million. Another 2% are crippled and traumatized beyond repair. 1 out of every 30 Russian men between 18 and 60 has been killed or maimed by this war.
Progress on the battlefield keeps slowing. At the current pace, taking the average casualty rate per square kilometer over the last 12 and the last 6 months, Russia will need anything between 5 million and 25 million men to throw into the meat grinder just (!) to take the rest of the Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
This war is not sustainable, and it's certainly not winnable. Putin will literally run out of cattle to send to the slaughter before he can achieve even his minimum objectives.
Rob Lee (@RALee85)
"For the first time this year, Mediazona and Meduza have updated the overall estimate of the actual number of Russia’s losses in its war against Ukraine. It is based on the Probate Registry and reflects the number of male Russian citizens aged 18 to 59 who died since the start of the full-scale invasion to the end of 2025: 352,000."
@mediazzzona @meduza_en
en.zona.media/article/2026/0…
— https://nitter.net/RALee85/status/2053095512291885509#m