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Café Europa: The two Armenias

Brief

Fraser McIlwraith reports that Armenia is visibly pivoting toward the West under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan but remains politically and socially divided. High-profile events on May 4–5, 2026 — an EPC meeting, Armenia’s first EU bilateral summit and the Yerevan Dialogue where Emmanuel Macron praised Pashinyan — acted as an unofficial pre-election boost ahead of the June 7 vote, with Civil Contract leading Strong Armenia by over 15 percentage points. Yet pro-Russian currents persist: oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan is erecting a giant Jesus statue in Zovuni and leads a minor, Russia-friendly party (3% in a February poll), while oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, under house arrest, urges closer ties with Moscow. After crushing defeats since 2020 Armenia is negotiating peace with Azerbaijan, but deep economic dependence on Russia and decayed institutions mean Pashinyan must pursue gradual trade diversification and reforms to consolidate a pro-European trajectory.

Why it matters

On May 4-5, 2026 Yerevan hosted the European Political Community meeting, Armenia’s first bilateral summit with the EU and the inaugural Yerevan Dialogue; French president Emmanuel Macron publicly praised Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, boosting his pro-European messaging ahead of the June 7, 2026 election.

Key details

  • Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract leads opposition Strong Armenia by more than 15 percentage points in polls ahead of the June 7 vote; by contrast Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia polled just 3% in February.
  • Prominent pro-Russian figures include oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, who is funding a massive Jesus statue in Zovuni despite objections from the Armenian Apostolic Church, and Samvel Karapetyan, leader of Strong Armenia, currently under house arrest and campaigning for closer ties with Russia.
  • Armenia is moving toward a negotiated peace with Azerbaijan after a series of military defeats since 2020, but remains economically dependent on Russia; Pashinyan faces the near-term task of expanding trade with the EU and Turkey and undertaking deep institutional reforms inherited from prior strongman rule.
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May 11th 2026 For subscribers

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Armenia is pivoting to the West, but its people are divided

Fraser McIlwraith

Foreign correspondent

The road was bumpier than I had expected and as my taxi chugged uphill, weaving around street dogs, I felt a little embarrassed. I had asked my driver to take me from the centre of Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, to Zovuni, a village to the city’s north. It is not somewhere visitors usually go. Lately, however, a giant sculpture has been drawing crowds. Towering over the villagers’ homes was the top section of a statue depicting Jesus Christ. In a yard behind it stood his midriff and his legs. Soon they will be taken to the top of a nearby mountain and assembled like Lego. Pedestal included, it will be one of the tallest statues of Jesus in the world.

The Armenian Apostolic Church, which forbids making such statues, has taken a dim view of the structure. But that has not stopped Gagik Tsarukyan, one of Armenia’s richest men, from pressing ahead with it.

Mr Tsarukyan, who leads a minor pro-Russian party called Prosperous Armenia, has said he hopes the edifice will unite Armenia in “difficult times”. The country is moving towards peace with Azerbaijan after a series of crushing defeats since 2020. I had read about Mr Tsarukyan’s project in local news outlets. And as someone interested in the role of money, religion and nationalism in Armenian politics ahead of the country’s election on June 7th, I felt it was worth going to see.

Mr Tsarukyan’s party itself is too small to be especially relevant. In a poll from February, just 3% of respondents said they would vote for it. But the forces it embodies—Russia-friendly sentiment, oligarchic power and nationalism—are looming large over the campaign.

The most popular opposition party, Strong Armenia, is led by Samvel Karapetyan, another oligarch, who is under house arrest for calling for the government to be overthrown (a charge he denies). He has criticised Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister since 2018, for turning the country’s foreign policy towards the West. When I interviewed Mr Karapetyan in his glitzy mansion in the hills above Yerevan last week, he accused the government of being afraid of Azerbaijan and conceding to too many of its demands. He argues that Armenia should maintain good relations with Russia, its traditional partner, and styles himself as a defender of church elites, who have clashed with Mr Pashinyan over Armenia’s military defeats.

In the days before I met Mr Karapetyan, a very different vision for Armenia was on display in the capital. On May 4th Yerevan hosted a meeting of the European Political Community, a gathering of leaders from countries in and around the European Union. The following day Armenia held its first bilateral summit with the EU and opened the Yerevan Dialogue, an annual talkfest, where Emmanuel Macron gave an address. The French president showered Mr Pashinyan with praise. “I know that for a long time many believed Armenia’s fate could only be under Russia’s supposedly protective wing,” said Mr Macron. Now Armenia was on “a democratic path…of peace…and of prosperity possible without imperial hegemony”.

Together, the events made up a kind of unofficial pre-election rally for Mr Pashinyan and his open, pro-European vision for Armenia. Mr Pashinyan will almost certainly win on June 7th: his Civil Contract party is ahead of Strong Armenia by more than 15 percentage points in the polls. Nevertheless, after the election, he will have to temper the week’s optimism with realism. Armenia is a long way from ever becoming a member, or even a candidate for membership, of the EU. Its economy is still heavily dependent on Russia: in the short term, Mr Pashinyan will need to focus on gradually building up trade with the EU and other countries, such as Turkey. Lots more work needs to be done to reform the country’s institutions, which decayed under strongman rule before Mr Pashinyan came to power.

If he can do that, he may convince more Armenians to set aside nationalist sentiment and historic sympathies for Russia and win them over to his idea of a more liberal, pro-European future. But doing so will take time. Until then, Armenia will remain a country divided.

What would you like to see us cover? Please send your thoughts and comments to cafeeuropa@economist.com.

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