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$32,604 is the 2026 inflation-adjusted equivalent of Sears' 1910 $938 kit-house…

2026-05-12 · 15:01 UTC ·@aakashgupta ·2 min read

Brief

Aakash Gupta argues $32,604 (the 2026 equivalent of Sears' 1910 $938 kit) no longer buys a Sears kit home: California's average impact fee is $37,471 and Fremont's hit $157,000, while Los Angeles and San Francisco charge $18k–$40k in permit fees. Modern lot-size rules, fire and contractor codes, grading standards and 12–24 month permitting make owner-assembled kit homes effectively infeasible today.

Why it matters

$32,604 is the 2026 inflation-adjusted equivalent of Sears' 1910 $938 kit-house price; the author asserts that amount "doesn't buy you a Sears house" in 2026.

Key details

  • California's average impact fee for a new single-family home is $37,471 (2024 California YIMBY), triple the national average; Fremont's single-family impact fee reached $157,000 (Terner Center 2018). $32,604 covers ~87% of the CA average fee and ~21% of Fremont's fee.
  • Permitting and code barriers now exceed the original kit model: Los Angeles permit packages cost $18k–$30k, San Francisco $25k–$40k; typical R‑1 minimum lots are 5,000–20,000 sq ft with minimum dwelling sizes 800–1,000+ sq ft (Sears models ~600 sq ft would be illegal); shared chimney flues, owner-assembled construction, pre-cut lumber grading/stamping, and 90-day assembly windows violate modern codes or licensing, while permitting cycles run 12–24 months.
Source evidence

$32,604 doesn't buy you a Sears house in 2026. It doesn't even cover the average impact fee California cities charge to build one.

California's average impact fee on a new single-family home is $37,471, triple the national average per a 2024 California YIMBY analysis. The 2018 Terner Center study found Fremont's single-family impact fee hit $157,000 per home. You could pay the full inflation-adjusted Sears price five times over in Fremont before a single hammer swings on actual construction.

Permits stack on top. The package in Los Angeles runs $18,000 to $30,000. San Francisco runs $25,000 to $40,000. Plan review and inspections pile on more. You can spend the entire 1910 Sears Modern Home equivalent on paperwork before pouring a foundation.

Then the geometry problem. Most suburban R-1 zones require minimum lot sizes of 5,000 to 20,000 square feet and minimum dwelling sizes of 800 to 1,000+ square feet. Sears sold models down to roughly 600 sq ft. Those plans would be illegal to build on most American residential lots regardless of materials cost.

Every load-bearing assumption of the Sears business model is now banned. The shared chimney flues used in cheaper models violate modern fire code. Owner-assembled construction triggers licensed contractor requirements in most jurisdictions. The rail-shipped pre-cut lumber wouldn't pass current grading and stamping standards. The 90-day assembly window that made the catalog work has been replaced by 12 to 24 month permitting cycles.

So what does $32,604 actually buy you today? In California, 87% of the average single-family impact fee. In Fremont specifically, about 21% of the fee on one house. In a top Bay Area jurisdiction you've covered the fees on a fraction of one unit and you haven't bought a single 2x4.

In 1910 you bought lumber and you built a house. In 2026 you buy the right to apply to build a house. The lumber is the cheap part.

Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)

From 1908-1940, Sears sold over 70,000 mail-order homes for around $938, shipped by rail for easy assembly by owners or local builders.

$938 in 1910 is equivalent in purchasing power to approximately $32,604 today.

What would that get you now?

Video

— https://nitter.net/MarioNawfal/status/2053744919508881686#m