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Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new…

2026-05-12 · 17:44 UTC ·@americanhousing ·2 min read

Brief

Nick Durham argues the US housing problem is as much about labor productivity as zoning: ABC estimates demand for 349,000 workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027 with 41% of workers retiring by 2031, infill costs 2–3×/sf in top metros, and Austin’s 2021–23 multifamily surge shows zoning alone won’t suffice—he pushes construction robotics to cut labor by ~90%.

Why it matters

Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new construction workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027; 41% of the current workforce will retire by 2031, specialty-trade wages are rising 4–11% annually, and many firms are paying ~20% premiums to keep crews staffed.

Key details

  • Infill in the 20 most desirable metros (San Francisco, NYC, LA, Boston, Seattle, DC, Austin, etc.) is the only near-job-location path to more housing but costs roughly 2–3× per square foot and depends on hard-to-staff, union trades—ironworkers, concrete crews, complex MEP, and elevator mechanics.
  • Austin permitted more multifamily per capita from 2021–2023 and saw rents fall ~20% from the 2022 peak, but the HOME reforms passed in Dec 2023 and May 2024 aren’t built yet; Austin’s success relied on permissive code, greenfield land, ~40% immigrant labor and low-rise economics, motivating investment in construction robotics (claimed up to ~90% less labor).
Source evidence

> Construction labor force is too old and small
> Cheap immigrant labor pool is shrinking
> Affordable greenfield land is drying up

That's why we're building the future of American housing: infill homes built with 90% less labor, powered by machines, large components, and cranes

Nick Durham (@pnickdurham)

If every YIMBY in America won their zoning fight tomorrow, supply doesn't immediately come online. The construction labor force is too old and too small.

The Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new workers in 2026 / 456,000 in 2027 just to complete planned projects. 41% of the current workforce will retire by 2031. Wages are rising 4-11% a year in specialty trades. Anecdotally, I know many of these firms are paying 20% premiums just to keep crews staffed. And again, there is zero accounting in these labor stats for increased production capacity.

This bites hardest in the 20 desirable metros where people want to live...SF, NYC, LA, Boston, Seattle, DC, and Austin until recently. In those cities, infill is the only path to increasing supply near where people work. Infill means mid-rise or towers at 2-3x the cost per square foot, built by the trades that are hardest to staff. ironworkers, concrete crews, complex MEP, elevator mechanics, all union based btw.

Austin is the example everyone points to as a zoning-reform success. The Austin MSA permitted more multifamily per capita than any major US metro from 2021 to 2023. Rents fell roughly 20% from their 2022 peak, the steepest drop in the country. But the units that broke the rent curve were permitted under the OLD code. The famous HOME zoning reforms passed in December 2023 and May 2024 have not been built yet. Austin also built garden apartments on cheap edge land with a construction workforce that is roughly 40% immigrant. 1) Permissive code, 2) greenfield land, 3) accessible labor, 4) low-rise economics. Desirable coastal cities are missing 3/4 of these ingredients.

So housing has two cost problems. Zoning matters most inside dense cities, where 95% of what you pay for a SF lot is the permission to build. But it's also in these places where construction labor cost is the most magnified. In the interior of the US, NAHB's breakdown of a new single-family home is land 18%, soft costs 25%, and hard costs 56%. The building itself is still the biggest line item, and it has gotten no cheaper to assemble in 60 years.

This is why we invest in construction robotics. The housing theory of everything says housing costs sit upstream of every problem in America. Zoning alone won't fix it. Construction labor productivity must improve. The answer is through better machines.

— https://nitter.net/pnickdurham/status/2054216186930344161#m