// OpenAI and AWS Partnerships, Tokenomics Explainer, Architecture Deep Dive, Datacenter Ramp, Technical Roadmap
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Cerebras — Faster Tokens Please
OpenAI and AWS Partnerships, Tokenomics Explainer, Architecture Deep Dive, Datacenter Ramp, Technical Roadmap
Myron Xie, Jordan Nanos, Max Kan, Cam Quilici, Tanj Bennett, Ivan Chiam, Louis Lu, Zane Fong, Gerald Wong, Reyk Knuhtsen, Nicolas Bontigui, Wega Chu, and Dylan Patel
May 13| | | ∙| | Preview
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It’s been nearly 5 years since Dylan wrote a dedicated article about Cerebras in June of 2021 for the newsletter. He shipped 4 articles in 2 days! How times have changed.
One of the other things that has changed is Cerebras’s fortunes. With the arrival of fast tokens on the mainstage and a 750MW compute deal with OpenAI notched, Cerebras is feeling ready for the scrutiny of public markets. Up until just 6 months ago, we felt that the Wafer Scale Engine, despite its bold innovations, had some technical weaknesses that were too hard to cover up. Thus, the continued popularity of HBM-based accelerators such as GPU and TPU. The strengths of Cerebras (namely: speed), have been overlooked for years in favor of total throughput. But now, with frontier labs releasing fast, priority, standard and batch tiers of the same model weights, the world has revealed their preference for fast tokens with their wallets. This brings Cerebras’s strengths to the fore and is the key reason why OpenAI is willing to fork over tens of billions of dollars for Cerebras compute.
Demand is so strong it’s making everyone look good.
Today, on the verge of Cerebras’s IPO, and because we love the wafer, we are shipping an article that is as long as 4 normal articles. Inside, we will dive deep on:
1. Fast inference
2. WSE-3, Cerebras’ unique wafer-scale chip
3. CS-3, Cerebras’ system, with its unique architecture
4. Provide a BOM cost analysis
5. Explain when and how the wafer wins for fast inference
6. Describe some of the wafer’s limitations, showing tradeoffs
For paid subscribers we also show the economics of the huge OAI Inference deal that has changed the company’s fortunes and share our insights on how far along Cerebras is in becoming a neocloud (i.e. securing the 750MW they need by 2028 for OpenAI). Furthermore, we will talk about Cerebras’ future plans of hybrid bonding an wafer scale optical transceiver onto their WSE compute engine, which they claim they are pursuing strictly for the love the game as it is not needed for LLM inference, but is needed for HPC boomer workloads. The HPC customers whom NVIDIA has effectively abandoned after reducing FP64 native hardware on their GPUs to basically nothing.
The Need for Speed
Fast inference has arrived.
While SemiAnalysis has historically been an SRAM machine hater, all this changed when Nvidia licensiquihired Groq in December 2025. Clearly Jensen saw at least $20B of value, and he was proven right just a couple months later when we hit the Claude Code Inflection Point. Now, the wafer is here to stay.
Many (including Andrej Karpathy) previously believed that raw intelligence/capabilities mattered far more than speed, but our revealed preferences ended up proving that there are times when the opposite is true. Past a certain threshold of intelligence, developers prefer faster tokens to smarter tokens. And in a world where AI is involved in almost every aspect of your workflow, the speed at which tokens are generated can be the bottleneck to “flow state”, i.e. how much productive work is completed.
Opus 4.6 fast mode famously charges 6x the price for 2.5x the interactivity (though its now under 2x faster, see chart below). In April, 80% of our AI spend (which peaked at $10M annualized) was on Opus 4.6 fast. When Opus 4.7 came out, many of our engineers refused to switch over because it didn’t include fast mode. Notably, this is the first time we’ve ever decided to forgo frontier intelligence in exchange for faster tokens (and at a significant price premium too!).
As an aside, Opus 4.6 fast has become an increasingly worse deal as of late. Standard Opus 4.6 interactivity in Claude Code is consistently around 40 tps (tokens per second). Opus 4.6 fast used to deliver > 100 tps, fulfilling the 2.5 faster guarantee. But it recently degraded to ~70 tps (only 1.75x faster). We recently worked with our friends at OpenRouter to gather this data on the two operating modes of Claude Opus.
Source: OpenRouter
We believe Opus 4.6 Fast is Anthropic’s highest margin SKU and a big reason for their explosion in ARR this year. However, we’ll see if this remains true given the slower speeds, delayed 4.7 support, and upcoming Mythos release. For in-depth details on OpenAI/Anthropic revenue broken down by model, see our Tokenomics Model.
The Throughput-Interactivity Frontier
To fully explain the architectural decisions Cerebras has made with their wafer scale chip, we first need to revisit inference fundamentals.
As Jensen repeatedly emphasized during this year’s GTC, throughput (tokens/sec/gpu) vs interactivity (tokens/sec/user) is the fundamental trade-off for inference. In our original InferenceX writeup, we described it as a bus vs a Ferrari: you can choose to serve lots of users slowly, a single user quickly, or anything in between.
Source: SemiAnalysis InferenceX
Of course, users are also willing to pay more money for higher interactivity, so it’s currently unclear exactly which spot along the pareto frontier maximizes overall revenue and profitability of inference for a given model provider. In reality, providers are currently deploying multiple options in an attempt to capture the entire market. Fast mode, priority mode, batch pricing, and specific model architectures are all experiments from OpenAI and Anthropic to find the optimal combination for their user base.
Source: SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model
Manipulating batch size (or “concurrency”, the number of users you serve simultaneously) is the primary way to move along the curve given the same hardware. This is the beauty of InferenceX. Whereas most other public inference benchmark only considers a single workload at a single interactivity level, InferenceX builds the entire pareto frontier across 3 different input/output sequence length combos for all the top open-source models. This allows you to make charts like the following, which shows that GB300 NVL72 achieves 20x more throughput than H100s at low interactivity (40 tps) and 100x more throughput at high interactivity (120 tps).
Source: SemiAnalysis InferenceX Dashboard
Alternatively, you can move along the frontier by changing the underlying hardware. This is the promise of SRAM machines like Cerebras and Groq. Their extremely high memory bandwidth allows them to increase throughput at high interactivity, and in the extreme case, achieve interactivity levels that are simply impossible for HBM-based accelerators. Cerebras offers speeds in the thousands of tokens per second, which is literally off the chart compared to the accelerators we benchmark in InferenceMax
In a world where people are willing to pay more for faster tokens, SRAM machines look quite attractive as they let you both (a) serve more users concurrently at premium speed (pushing the frontier “up”) and (b) serve some users at even faster, more expensive speeds (extending the frontier to the right).
The Wafer-Scale Engine
Cerebras’s fundamental bet has been to go beyond the reticle limit for a single piece of silicon. Instead of splitting a wafer into multiple chips, the goal is to make the entire wafer a chip. This clever scaling was to address a whole host of problems incurred by the slowdown of Moore’s law and the hard constraint of silicon being no larger than 858mm2; the size of a single reticle pattern in mask-based lithography. This single wafer-sized chip is called their Wafer Scale Engine (WSE).
Source: Cerebras
The WSE is a 12 x 7 grid of 84 identical steppings/die on a whole wafer that forms one piece of silicon. Each wafer or chip has a large pool of very fast SRAM. 50% of silicon area is dedicated to SRAM cells with the remaining 50% consisting of compute cores. The key innovation is having both the silicon and memory on one piece of silicon instead of interconnecting multiple different chips together. This saves power, latency, and cost of moving data off-silicon or off-package.
“Traditional” GPUs and XPUs need advanced packaging and networking to achieve greater levels of aggregate compute and memory, which incurs costs in terms of power, speed and more networking equipment. While not a like-for-like comparison, Cerebras compares its on-wafer dataflow speeds to Nvidia’s off-package scale-up bandwidth based on the assumption that data can stay on the WSE whereas GPU data needs to move off-package.
Source: Nvidia, Groq, Amazon, Google, Cerebras, SemiAnalysis
Cerebras is on its third-generation product, WSE-3, which is fabricated on TSMC’s N5 node. One WSE-3 has 44GB of SRAM across a wafer or “single chip.” This is a lot of SRAM. A typical large processor has on-chip SRAM in the 100s of megabytes. Even the Groq SRAM machine is only 500MB for each LPU3. SRAM is very fast, so it can deliver 21PB/s of bandwidth, thousands of times more than what HBM offers. Again, this is significantly more than the very high bandwidth Groq LPU due to the WSE having several more banks of SRAM and with the bandwidth of individual banks aggregated together.
While Cerebras markets a lot of FLOPs for the WSE-3: 125 PFLOPs of FP16 compute, this is a sparse number, not a dense number. This is taking a page out of the Jensen Math playbook but taking it further. Unlike Nvidia, Cerebras doesn’t actually state dense FLOPs in public WSE marketing materials. However, Cerebras assumes 8:1 unstructured sparsity in its sparse number, so dense FLOPS is actually 1/8th or 15.6 PFLOPS of FP16 compute throughput. We call this “Feldman’s Formula.” For the CS-2/WSE-2 a 10:1 ratio was assumed – as we see below, the sparse and dense spec is an order of magnitude different. While WSE-3 still wins on absolute compute throughput relative to other chips, compute per silicon area is not that impressive, especially today. This is likely down to each core being much smaller than a GPU’s functional array size, which is necessary for the purposes of yield harvesting, which we describe below.
Source: Cerebras at HotChips 2023
The last part is off-wafer networking, which stands as the weakest part of the WSE. In total there is only 150GB/s of bandwidth, a fraction of GPU/XPU competitors who place huge importance on network to scale capability. We will talk more about the implications of low I/O as well as the structural difficulty in adding more I/O.
In summary, the WSE is a very big chip with a lot of SRAM, a decent amount of compute but not that much relative to silicon area, and almost zero network. We will now talk about the implications of this.
SRAM Machines
Where the WSE is clearly very strong is SRAM capacity. Like Groq’s LPU, the WSE is in the class of accelerator we call “SRAM machines,” where more silicon area is dedicated to super-fast SRAM, which is used as the primary memory where model weights and KV Cache are stored. In contrast, mainstream GPUs and ASICs such as TPU and Trainium use HBM to store model weights and KV Cache. They still have SRAM, just less of it. In general, trading HBM for SRAM means much higher bandwidth, lower latency and faster token output, but at the cost of capacity and therefore total throughput per {chip, watt, $}. SRAM is also just a lot more expensive per bit. Here is a chart from our recent article on NVIDIA + Groq’s use of SRAM comparing the technologies:
Source: SemiAnalysis
Even though the WSE-3’s 44GB of SRAM is a huge amount of SRAM relative to any other chip, it is not much more capacity than the 36GB provided by a single stack of HBM3E 12-Hi. With the norm trending towards 8 stacks per accelerator, this is 288GB for a single GPU or TPU package (e.g. the current generation Blackwell Ultra), which is 6.5x more than the SRAM capacity of a WSE.
Some readers may have noticed that DRAM has been in demand , and a lot of it is because AI system designers are trying to pack in as much capacity as they can. More memory in a system allows model providers to:
1\. fit a larger model (more parameters)
2\. serve more concurrent requests, i.e. more users (more KV Cache)
3\. support larger context windows, i.e. larger sequence lengths per request (more KV Cache)
Inference providers make a business out of using all the above, which is why memory capacity per GPU is increasing. Not only that, but usable memory is not limited to a single package, since a workload can be sharded over multiple chips and aggregate memory can be pooled together within a scale up fabric. That’s why networking is such a key competitive battleground for all the AI hardware companies. That is, all of them except for Cerebras who have accepted the trade-off of little network and are working around it. So, with on-wafer memory capacity limited, the escape hatch of networking more wafers together is also much narrower for Cerebras. The lack of network bandwidth, while not fatal, is certainly a handicap in the WSE-3 design preventing Cerebras from launching their business to the stratosphere.
With that said, Cerebras is now on the path to being a healthy and rapidly growing business, with its OAI deal being a game-changer: until 2028 Cerebras will need to ship an order of magnitude more servers than they have since inception. The demand surge is already visible in TSMC’s wafer loadings, which step up materially each quarter through the year to meet OpenAI’s deployment requirements. We expect Cerebras revenue to inflect sharply in the coming years, with OpenAI as the primary growth driver.
Source: SemiAnalysis Accelerator Model
Cerebras’s Technology
To reach this point, Cerebras has had to solve many technical problems from silicon to system to software. To their credit, there is a lot of proprietary hardware technology here, especially when compared to the innovations (or lack of) that a lot of other accelerator startups bring to the table. The wafer is a bold bet and not easy for incumbents and competitors to replicate.
Some of Cerebras’s proprietary technologies include:
1\. Cross-die wiring and routing. Cerebras uses the scribe lines as wiring for the on-wafer data fabric that connects all the dies together. In a typical wafer, these are keep out zones where the wafer is diced to singulate individual dies.
2\. Redundancy and failure routing. For the purpose of having an acceptable level of yield, the ability to route through defective cores is critical. Defects are inevitable especially for near reticle-sized units. Typically, dense processors that are near reticle sized have sort yields of well below 50%. For the sake of redundancy, there are a total of 970,000 cores on the WSE, of which 900,000 are enabled. Each core is deliberately made much smaller for the sake of better yield harvesting. However, this is not simple and there is a significant additional cost required. One of the interesting things done is that each batch of wafers will have a custom mask set for the upper metal layers. This is for the purposes of having different wiring for each batch to route around all the defective tiles. The cost of additional masks is a material increase in cost on top of the nominal TSMC wafer cost. Why is this for every batch of wafers? This comes down to intra-batch process variation being lower than across different batches. Read here to learn more about semiconductor manufacturing process variation. The net result of this is that wafer-level yield ends up being high. Nearly 100% of the TSMC wafer output is good enough to be assembled into a production server.
3\. Power delivery and cooling. One of the major challenges that Cerebras has solved is getting over 20KW of power into one wafer, and it will be even more next gen. This much power necessitated the need for a custom power delivery solution from Vicor. This power will of course be turned into heat that needs to be removed, which requires specialized cooling. The power delivery and cooling sub-assembly in each CS server is called the “engine block.” This is another key component which, like the WSE silicon itself, is uniquely architected for Cerebras.
Despite these commendable technical achievements, the WSE architecture runs into a few technical limits that constrain their technical roadmap and ability to serve tokens.
Thermal Design and Cooling
Cooling 25 kW in a single 46,225 mm² wafer is the central thermal problem in CS-3 design, which translates into roughly 50 W/cm² averaged across the die, before accounting for hotspots. Air cooling was rejected because a 3DVC vapor chamber heat spreader (like we see in HGX H100 servers), scaled to span the 21.5 cm die, exceeds its wick’s capillary limit and dries out before working fluid can return to the evaporator. The CS-3 uses a custom liquid-cooled stack that presents architecture, flow rates, and rack-level plumbing different from Nvidia’s more recognizable direct-to-chip single-phase deployments.
The thermal solution is 100% custom and co-designed with the wafer. The silicon and the PCB underneath it expands at different rates as they heat up, and across a 21.5x21.5cm wafer that mismatch is large enough to crack a conventional package. The cold plate, the connector that bridges wafer to PCB, and the assembly tooling all had to be built from scratch. Cerebras calls its system the “engine block”, a four-layer sandwich including the cold plate, wafer, compliant connector, PCB, with the cooling manifold mated to the back of the cold plate. We will go over the system architecture in more detail in the next section.
Heat rejection runs through the cold plate. Coolant flows through micro-fin channels machined into the back of a copper plate. The wafer-facing side of the plate is polished and held against the silicon under preload, letting the two-slide relative to each other as they expand at different rates while maintaining contact to spread heat.
We find another architectural challenge at the rack-to-CDU interface. The OCP/Nvidia reference design for GB200 NVL72 sizes facility-side flow at ~1.5 LPM/kW. That constant is the one the majority of today’s CDU fleet is sized against. The WSE-3 runs at around ~100 LPM at 25kW, roughly 4 LPM/kW, or ~3x the NVL72 reference. That delta forces operators to use larger pumps, larger pipes, oversized CDUs, and quick-disconnects rated for higher flow. We believe that CS-4 should bring rack-level flow back toward 1.5–1.7 LPM/kW, which, if delivered, would converge Cerebras onto standardized infrastructure.
One of Cerebras’s main cooling partners is LiquidStack, which Trane Technologies acquired in March 2026. LiquidStack and Cerebras initially started working on two-phase solutions, and they have jointly developed L2L single-phase CDUs sized to the CS-3’s flow and pressure envelope.
Inlet temperature is a final axis where Cerebras diverges from other chips. Cerebras’s Oklahoma facility runs a 6,000-ton chiller plant producing 5°C (42°F) chilled water, which is then warmed across a heat exchanger to ~21°C (~70°F) before reaching the engine block. NVL72, by contrast, is specified up to 45°C (113°F) inlet temperature, which lets operators run free cooling for larger portions of the year. The CS-3’s wafer-level heat flux requires the colder envelope, and the cost is a chiller-heavy facility.
Chiller Plant at Oklahoma City Datacenter. Source: Matthew Berman
The CS-3 Architecture and BOM
Let’s take a step back from liquid cooling and zoom out to the Cerebras CS-3 system.
Each CS-3 includes the following: one WSE-3 engine block , peripheral compute and I/O modules, two mechanical pumps, 12 3.3kW power supply units, and a liquid-to-air or liquid-to-liquid cooling system.
Zooming into the WSE-3 engine block, the WSE-3 engine takes in 25kW of power alone. Power delivery and cooling of the WSE-3 wafer is extremely customized and innovated. The power is fed into the WSE-3 engine block via the blind mated power connectors from the 12 3.3kW power supply units. The PSU delivers power at 50V to 12 PDB boards that stack on top of each other horizontally. Each PDB board matches to a row of 7 Vicor power bricks, which matches to a row of 7 blocks on the WSE-3 wafer. With 12 PDB, that is 84 power bricks and 84 blocks on the WSE-3 wafer. Then, 12V power will be delivered to Vicor’s power delivery module which is on the PCB with the WSE-3 wafer on the other side, and the Vicor brick will convert the power to 1V before sending it to the wafer. The WSE-3 is socketed onto the customized PCB via an elastomer socket.
At the top of the WSE-3 engine block sits the I/O FPGA module connected to the WSE-3 PCB via board-to-board connectors. These FPGAs essentially serve as NICs that take in the Cerebras proprietary I/O off the wafer and converts it to Ethernet for scale out as well as PCIe. Customized cold plates are attached to the WSE-3 engine, the Vicor power delivery module, the CPUs, and the I/O FPGAs. The cooling loops connect to the manifold on the right side of the WSE-3 engine block. The manifolds have 6 couplings, in which 4 goes to the pump and 2 goes to the liquid-to-air or liquid-to-liquid heat removal system.
In addition, each CS server has a separate ‘KVSS’ node. This is a dual socket AMD CPU node with 6TB of DDR5 RDIMM which is used for KVCache offload. We estimated the BoM cost of the CS-3 system and the KVSS CPU node to be $350k USD per rack before the memory price hike that started in Q4 last year. Accounting for the latest memory price hike, we have raised the estimate of the BoM of the CS-3 system and the KVSS CPU node to $450k USD per rack.