Abstract
For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.
Comment: 9 pages of main text, 9 pages of appendices, 13 figures