In life, everything is a wager. Whether you realize it or not, you are constantly making implicit and explicit predictions about the future state of reality. To live is to predict.
So when you are faced with something like Mythos, and you say, “this is just ‘doomer hype’!,” what you are really doing is making a bet against model capabilities growth, and thus ultimately you are making a broad directional bet against deep learning, which has usually been a pretty bad bet to make.
I am surprised that so many people—people who are otherwise AI optimists!—continue to make these bets against deep learning. They keep being wrong, and the less humble among them have torched their credibility with anyone paying attention.
So ask yourself, when you make claims about AI and its future: “am I making an implicit bet against deep learning in a broad directional way?”
prinz (@deredleritt3r)
UK AISI has access to a "newer Mythos Preview checkpoint", which now performs significantly better on its cybersecurity benchmarks:
TLO: 6/10 attempts successful (up from 3/10 for the original Mythos)
Cooling Tower: 3/10 attempts successful (previously unsolved by AI)
— https://nitter.net/deredleritt3r/status/2054622719618977825#m